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El Frente de Todos todavía respira

AAS

Por Martín Obregón (*)

El Frente de Todos hizo la elección que esperaba. Esta vez se equivocaron quienes auguraban una derrota catastrófica del oficialismo, perdiendo por una diferencia todavía mayor a la registrada en las PASO. En lugar de ampliarse, la brecha se redujo de manera significativa.

El peronismo volvió a imponerse en los siete distritos que ganó en las PASO (San Juan, La Rioja, Catamarca, Salta, Santiago del Estero, Tucumán y Formosa) y revirtió los resultados en otras dos (Chaco y Tierra del Fuego). En la Provincia de Buenos Aires logró sumar cinco puntos porcentuales y achicar la distancia a menos de un punto y medio. Es verdad que el gobierno retrocede en el Congreso al perder el quórum propio en el Senado, pero teniendo en cuenta el contexto general, la foto final no deja de significar un alivio.

Juntos por el Cambio, por su parte, parece haber alcanzado su techo electoral. En términos generales, mantuvo el mismo caudal conseguido en las PASO y en las generales del 2019. No supo capitalizar a su favor el tremendo mazazo que le asestó al gobierno hace dos meses atrás. Los votos que le faltan al gobierno no los tiene Juntos por el Cambio.

El repunte del Frente de Todos a nivel nacional tuvo dos puntales: las provincias del NOA (donde en varios distritos volvió a superar el 50% de los votos) y el conurbano bonaerense. Son votos provenientes de sectores empobrecidos de la población que, al menos parcialmente, retornaron al oficialismo. En el resto del país no hubo variaciones significativas.

Las expresiones de ultraderecha encabezadas por figuras como Milei y Espert, tal como se preveía, experimentaron un leve crecimiento, aunque mucho menos significativo del que algunos imaginaban y sin posibilidades, al menos por ahora, de arraigar a nivel nacional.

La izquierda hizo una muy buena elección, la mejor en mucho tiempo, consolidándose como tercera fuerza nacional. Al porcentaje histórico conseguido en Jujuy (25%) deben sumarse los muy buenos resultados obtenidos tanto en CABA (8%) como en la Provincia de Buenos Aires (7%). En el resto del país, la elección fue similar a la de las PASO, superando los cinco puntos en varias provincias patagónicas.

Después de la debacle de septiembre, de la crisis política posterior y en el contexto de una fuerte ofensiva del poder real, este resultado es una bocanada de aire fresco para el gobierno. El Frente de Todos todavía respira. Tal vez tenga una nueva oportunidad (la última seguramente) para cambiar el rumbo y empezar a saldar la enorme deuda que mantiene con las grandes mayorías populares.

(*) Historiador.

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